Monday, September 26, 2016

No One There to Catch Her? - the Role of Big Mo'

People have correctly noted how there are ebbs and flows in elections, and, indeed, no one has shown that more than Donald Trump in this very cycle.  And so the question inevitably arises - if Trump comes out of the Debate with momentum, can this thing again bounce back the other way, towards and in favor of Clinton.  I respectfully suspect that the answer may well be, "no", because this situation is not like the other situations to which people point.  The most clear example of a bounce-back is after Obama's debacle (that's "debacle", not "debate") performance against Mitt Romney (remember him?).  Obama came back quickly, after the next debate.  But, here's the thing: Obama is incredibly likeable and incredibly charismatic, and had and has broad and strong affirmative support.  Reagan's early missteps against Carter and the subsequent path taken by the electorate resonate similarly.  Clinton, on the other hand, is despised and distrusted, and has an ever-shrinking and incredibly unenthusiastic core of support.  Pennsylvania is coming; even Colorado is coming.  The trappings of this situation has all the hallmarks of what happens when someone that no one like missteps and falters, . . . there simply may be no one there to catch her and break her fall.  And, if that's right, then you have a free fall, and one that is difficult or impossible to reverse.  But step one for The Donald is clearly, without a doubt, for him to come out of Hofstra with Big Mo'.  Can he do it?  Stay tuned, folks, it just may be about to get interesting.  Game on!

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