There's a subtle but powerful point that's been made to me about the 2020 election. To wit, the remarkable coalescing of pro-Trump sentiment throughout the 2024 electorate would not have been possible without Joe Biden's 2020 inauguration.
To understand the subtleties of this point, as I've come to understand it, let's go back to 2020. In particular, let's go back to pre-COVID 2020.
You had a generally booming economy, with demonstrable economic gains in virtually every demographic. You had safety and security in the world, with the effective eradication of ISIS, the neutering of Iran and a quiet Russia. You had, really, no solid path to argue that an alternative would lead to better objective results.
I'm not trying to paint a rosy picture in order to support Trump. I just don't think there's a credible position to the effect that, absent COVID, the 2020 election would have been at all competitive. To anyone who disagrees – that’s what makes the world go ‘round.
And yet, even for me, it’s not as though all was well. A large segment of American society felt targeted, hated Trump's style and choice of words and generally detested him. Indeed, the anti-Trump forces were somewhat unified and quite animated. The possibility that Trump might be reelected was literally panicking those who despised him. Does anyone remember that in 2020 a significant portion of New York was actually boarded up on election eve out of a fear that violence, vandalism and rioting would occur were Trump to be reelected? (Somehow, people seemed to think that was OK.) People seriously (as opposed to apocryphally) threatened to leave the country (to varying levels of concern by others who seemed happy to see them go) if Trump were to win. That hysteria, however, would not have been enough to overcome the palpable positives that America was experiencing across a wide range of issues.
So how then did he fail to hold the presidency? COVID. That’s: COVID COVID COVID COVID COVID. COVID cost Trump the presidency for a number of disparate reasons:
- Things went bad. The economy was devastated. So all the good that was happening evaporated at breakneck speed. And it wasn't, to put a spin on Mr. Carville's recent surmise, just the economy stupid. The very fabric of society was collapsing, resulting in a remarkably overwhelming general malaise. Times Square looking like an empty ghost town? Impossible, but yet so. If Trump wanted to take credit for the good, he was about to be stuck with the bad, regardless of how external the cause.
- Trump arguably mishandled the situation. His typically plain-speaking and sarcastic response to calls for masking and vaccination alienated and upset huge swaths of people, whether or not his underlying points were fair, correct or ultimately vindicated. He bounced around on Fauci and otherwise vacillated. He made assertions about the ostensibly Chinese origins of the virus that some took as bigoted. All in all, he fell into traps that would not have been there but for COVID. Maybe he could shoot someone in the face on Fifth Avenue and not lose a vote, but he didn’t seem to be able to navigate COVID.
- The vaccines came mere weeks too late, whether intentionally or otherwise. If the vaccines had gotten out there before the election, his candidacy might well have survived the pandemic. But they didn’t.
- The Democrats ingeniously seized upon the historically disdained process of allowing paper ballots without absentee-type justification, successfully asserting that the process was now legitimized, and maybe even necessitated, by COVID. Regardless of whether this stroke of Machiavellian genius resulted in a legitimate influx or illegitimate influx of Biden voters, it clearly was the reason for and difference-maker regarding the ascension of Biden to the Presidency.
But there was a double-edged sword here. The externalities leading to the Biden presidency wound up presenting enormous challenges for the new President. Biden's support was essentially an anti-Trump phenomenon. Even with all of the COVID-related headwinds facing Trump, the reluctant Mr. Biden, as Mr. Clyburn all-to-well understood, was obviously the only Democratic candidate in 2020 who was not so objectionable (or boring) that he could win. Few (any?) enthusiastically supported Biden; many simply didn't want Trump. Sentiments like "at least COVID might get that idiot out of there" and (as we've again heard lately) "just tell me for whom I'm voting other than Hitler" proliferated. On the other hand, it’s a critical point – which was (but really no longer is) fundamentally misunderstood – that Trump's basic support was fanatical and even rabid.
So be careful for what you wish. By essentially electing an Eastwood-like empty chair, and a mentally aging one at that, the Democrats sowed the seeds of tremendous later discontent. Anyone remotely in the middle could see in real-time the utter vapidness of the discombobulated policies of a fractured Democratic Party led by an absentee President.
And then a proud and well-meaning Joe took a fateful tack. He decided that, rather than passing the torch to a new generation of Democrats as a transitional non-Trump president, he would run again. Worse for his team, he then stayed in until it was just about too late, when a barely-in-time coup got him out of there with only seconds left on the clock.
But the coup, as necessary as it was (I can't imagine the devastation that the Democrats would have seen up and down ballot had he toughed it out), given its timing, left only one possible candidate - an ineffectual (putting aside whether she's objectionable) individual who (i) dropped out of the 2020 primary with virtually no support, even from Black voters, (ii) was picked as VP only because she is a Black woman (sorry, but facts are facts), (iii) was derided by Trump as so bad that she doubled as an insurance policy for Biden (albeit one that, ironically, ultimately didn't work), and (iv) was despised by even her own side to such an extent that her party was looking for ways to get her off the ticket as late as a week before the coup. In about 18 hours, a universally reviled political figure was anointed by a party's desperate donor class and other party leaders as someone several rungs above Jesus Christ.
But, it turned out, it was all an illusion. As things would unfold it eventually became clear that the Democrats had selected an essentially useless candidate to run for President of the United States of America against someone who previously actually held that office.
And, false narratives and false polling aside, the people, who really are pretty darn smart, saw it for what it was. Trump's support was so fundamental, deep and strong that Harris' path could never survive any material leakage from within her base. Look at the county-by-county voting maps. The entire country is essentially red.
Then, the Israeli/Palestinian situation cracked an early chink in the armor that, even without more, might have been too much for Harris to overcome. Biden came out all-in for Israel and then waffled. Harris was always far more ambivalent, at best (she “hates Israel," said Trump). So, in what became a lose-lose situation not wholly of his making, Biden lost the Progressives, and started to lose the Jewish vote. Harris couldn't reverse those results.
The chipping away didn't end there. Inflation became a huge problem for the Democrats, and even favorable trending in the stock market, with gas and other prices and regarding unemployment was not enough to reverse broad perceptions of woe. International dislocation, never good for an incumbent, was rampant, maybe made worse by a failure of American leadership. The border situation became catastrophic. The reversal of Roe v. Wade turned out not to be the end of abortion. Leftist social policies started to be perceived as unimportant and then objectionable. And the absurd rants about threats to Democracy, the end of elections and the decline of the American experiment were exposed as overblown nonsense. The empty chair maybe worked once; it was destined not to work again.
All of this has now left us with a galvanized right-leaning electorate that has seen material gains among Blacks, Hispanics, women and young people across virtually all geographies, who are now joining an already cohesive Trump base. It’s no longer off-limits for people in the middle to admit liking Trump. And the losing side? The meltdowns have (sadly) been less severe. There seems to be an almost wistful recognition of the fact that the Republican candidate may really have had the better of this one.
I would respectfully submit that you would never have come close to this level of unity and excitement country-wide had Trump won in 2020. But you've sure got it now. I mean, heck, the Village People are about to serenade The Donald!
{I'm sorta happy for Joe that he can say all he wants that he'd have won. Nice that he can't be proven wrong. Darn that Pelosi and Clooney - the Dems could had it if only they stayed with Biden. Yeah, sure, right. The whole thing is actually quite amusing.)
Would I pretend to prefer that Trump not have won in 2020? No, I never would go that far. Winning back the White House in 2024 seemed like a daunting and almost impossible task at the end of January 2020, and banking then on that eventuality would have been a bridge too far, at least for me. But, now that he’s actually won, do I prefer this scenario to one in which the Trump/Pence ticket was reelected? Absolutely.
Thanks, Joe.